Determination of climate and technogenesis impact on the state of water resources

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to develop mathematical models of the impact of climate change and man-made pollution on the water balance of river basins to predict water shortages, assess the effectiveness of environmental measures, and introduce innovative technologies to restore water resources in southern Ukraine. Methods. The study is based on a statistical analysis of long-term observations of climatic and hydrological indicators of river basins in the southern regions of Ukraine. The data collected were based on bathymetric sensors installed in the canals to monitor water levels, soil moisture, precipitation, and changes in the water balance; soil moisture sensors at different depths with three times of critical summer temperatures; and meteorological data on precipitation, temperature regimes, and the duration of dry periods obtained from local weather stations. Findings. The studies have shown a steady trend of decreasing moisture in the air and soil under conditions of elevated temperatures in the southern regions of Ukraine, which creates risks for technological processes and the agricultural sector. Based on the assessments, effective methods of integrated water resources management have been proposed to minimize the effects of drought in the southern regions of Ukraine. The originality. An integral index of water restoration for the southern regions of Ukraine, which considers both climatic and anthropogenic factors, was developed for the first time. The mathematical modeling of the impact of drought on the water balance of water bodies was carried out. A methodology for assessing the impact of precipitation on the water regime in different climatic zones is proposed. Recommendations for the use of local wastewater treatment technologies during periods of water shortage have been developed. Practical implementation. The results of the study can be used to manage water resources in the southern regions of Ukraine, particularly in drought conditions. The study forms a toolkit for restoring the water balance of the water sector in the face of climate change, which is important for ensuring the sustainability of ecosystems and the region's economy.