Prediction of chronic diseases among population caused by air emissions from mining and metallurgical plant

Abstract

Purpose. To analyze the species composition and volumes of pollutants that entered the atmospheric air from ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih during 2014–2022 and negatively affect the environment and the population living in the territory near the enterprise. Based on the two-dimensional mass transfer equation, calculate the concentration fields of the main harmful impurities and assess the risk of chronic diseases for the population that is under long-term technogenic influence. The methods. The most significant statistical indicators were used to analyze the dynamics and trends of changes in the volume of pollutants. To find the concentration fields, the analytical method of solving the two-dimensional equation of impurity transport is applied. A non-threshold risk assessment model was used to predict the risk of chronic diseases for the population from polluted air by ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih. Findings. On the basis of descriptive statistics, the dynamics of changes in gross emissions of pollutants into the air from ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih for the years 2014–2022 were analyzed, it was shown that the decrease in emissions of pollutants into the air is related to the decrease in the production volumes of the main types products, as well as with the reconstruction and decommissioning of open-hearth steel furnaces and rotary-hearth furnaces. The resulting concentration field of nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide determines the areas that are most affected by the man-made load of this enterprise. The risk of chronic diseases that may appear in the population during their lifetime in this territory due to constant exposure to those harmful impurities that enter the environment in the largest volumes from this enterprise has been assessed. The originality. Trends in changes in gross emissions of pollutants into atmospheric air from ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih have been established. A program for numerical calculation of the concentration field was created on the basis of the method of analytical solution of the equation of steady-state transport of pollution in a two-dimensional formulation. Computational experiments were conducted for relevant harmful impurities to assess the level of concentration and the risk of chronic diseases in the population. Practical implementation. Prediction the risk of chronic diseases for the population living near the industrial enterprises is a necessary tool for assessing the level of environmental safety.